Why China blinked in Doklam standoff

ON OCTOBER 18, 2017 BY NARESH SAGARLEAVE A COMMENTEDIT

Vinod Saighal | October 18, 2017 3:58 am

What really compelled China to de-escalate in Doklam? First, let us examine the reasons that have been cited in the public domain since the pull-back some weeks ago. After weeks of raising the decibel level the government in Beijing realised that building the road up to the Jampheri Ridge was considered an existential threat by India due to its proximity to the Siliguri corridor and hence India was unlikely to budge; the coming 19th CPC meeting in November 2017 later on in the year and the BRICS meeting at Xiamen.

In the last case it is possible that Putin advised his counterpart that without the participation of the Indian Prime Minister the summit would not measure up to expectation, considerably embarrassing the host country. Since Russia had maintained studied silence throughout the Doklam confrontation, the Russian President’s advice would have been taken in good faith. Had BRICS become a damp squib it would have hurt the Chinese President’s image.

A few other allied reasons had also been discussed threadbare in the print and electronic media. Going beyond the confrontation and the peaceful pullback and, with the passage of time, it becomes possible to deduce the deeper reasons for the Chinese backing down, which in the public perception amounted to loss of face.

The more cogent reasons are briefly discussed in the ensuing paragraphs. More than 70 days had already elapsed since the start of the confrontation. There were no signs of India backing down. Overblown rhetoric followed by threats in case India did not pull back had reached such a crescendo that had the confrontation continued much longer the agitated Chinese public would have mounted intense pressure for action that the government would have found it difficult to resist because in confrontations with other countries never had the Chinese gone so far as to tell its adversary that the latter would be taught a lesson it would not forget.

For the countries of the region watching the situation apprehensively China would have appeared to be a paper tiger. On the other hand the masterly way in which India handled the situation by not matching the Chinese rhetoric gave the impression of quiet confidence that would normally result from a position of strength.

The perception of ‘position of strength’, according to informed sources reporting from Beijing led to re-appraisal within the PLA, CMC as well as the top government echelons. The de novo re-assessment led to considerable doubt and misgivings about the outcome in case China went on to physically evict the Indian troops from their positions. It was realised that without military action the Indian side was not going to budge.

Over the years the Chinese government had come to believe, as had the Indian defence establishment, that military asymmetry with China was too formidable for India to risk military confrontation. The asymmetry since China’s accelerated growth had already been high enough to cause concern. Added to it was the fact that with much higher GDP and military budget the asymmetry would keep growing. The perception was shared by countries of ASEAN and East Asia, even beyond.

This was generally the larger picture prior to the confrontation. It led to the belief in corridors of Beijing that beyond a point, with the nature of threats that amounted to an ultimatum, India had no choice but to withdraw from the Doklam Plateau. The deeper analysis mentioned in the previous paragraph when reduced from the macro-perception to the situation on the border in the face of India’s intransigence showed up the chinks in the Chinese armour that could have resulted in a debacle for the Chinese forces. An elaboration follows:

· The undeniable macro-level asymmetry simply would not work out on any border conflagration with India. China’s overall military strength was that of a growing superpower attempting to match the US military power, if not globally, certainly in the South China Sea, East Asia and in the Pacific. Comparatively, over the years India had quietly built up its strength on its vulnerable border to a level that it felt confident of being able to take on anything that the Chinese would field against them. Several mountain divisions had been raised to reinforce the Arunachal Pradesh border that China had begun to claim since 2005, never before that. Simultaneously a mountain strike corps had commenced raising that although not fully operational for another two years or so had the potential for a limited repost of a type that India never had before. In sum India would have successfully blunted any offensive.

Coming down to the level of the actual fighting most of the factors operative on the ground favoured India. Firstly, in the mountains missiles and other offensive weapons of the type were insufficient to dislodge the Indian troops. Commanders who have operated on those heights know that mountains eat up men. The only way to dislodge the opponent is to have much larger force for dislodging men in strong defensive positions with well-coordinated fire. The Indian side was sure that in hand-to-hand fighting at those altitudes the Indian soldier would be more than a match for the opponent. There are several reasons for such confidence.

The Chinese have not fought any major land war for 38 years. On the Indian side there have been confrontations on the borders with its Western adversary very frequently, sometimes on a daily basis. Besides the Indian soldiers had proved their mettle against heavy odds in the Kargil War where the advantage lay with the opponent.

Another important factor that is overlooked is morale and motivation. For the Indian soldier these are very high because they are fighting for their motherland. Not so the Chinese soldier. The Chinese border with India came into being after the occupation of Tibet a bare 70 years ago. After another century if Tibet were to remain under occupation the feeling may become different. Currently for the Chinese soldier Tibet’s border with India is not motherland. The motivational difference always matters in close fighting.

Coming back the to the individual Chinese soldier located thousands of miles from his home there is further loss of motivation due to the one-child policy that has been in vogue for several decades. Being a single child fighting well away from home and worrying about his aged parents the motivation can never match the adversary confronting him with determination.

To sum it up the situation appears to have ended by considerably discomfiting the Chinese leadership with the attendant loss of face within China and beyond its borders in neighbouring countries. It resulted from a series of miscalculations that need not be gone into in depth in the current paper. Briefly, the Chinese had not anticipated the Indian reaction on Bhutanese territory and the latter’s call to India. Over the decades the Chinese leadership had become accustomed to the fact that when pushed very hard the Indian leadership would step back.

It had happened so often in recent years that the leaders in Beijing did not give it a second thought. Had they pondered a while before aggravating the crisis – by raising the decibel level that made it difficult for them to de-escalate – they would have realized that India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi was cast in a different mould.

A last thought in this episode that must have crossed some minds at the highest level in Beijing would have been India’s military position in Sikkim (this writer had briefly commanded the East Sikkim watershed in 1991), which overlooks the Doklam Plateau. It is so formidable that any conventional military misadventure instead of resulting in 1962 could well have resulted in another 1979. That conceivably could have been the end of the Chinese leader’s dream of a long tenure at the apex.

(The writer, a retired Major-General of the Indian Army is the author of Third Millennium Equipoise.)

Director General of MI5 Andrew Parker

ON OCTOBER 18, 2017 BY NARESH SAGARLEAVE A COMMENTEDIT

Director General of MI5 Andrew Parker delivers a speech in central London, on the security threat facing Britain October 17, 2017/REUTERS

Britain faces the most acute threat ever from militants seeking to inflict mass attacks, often with spontaneous plots that take just days to bring to execution, the head of the MI5 domestic intelligence agency said on Tuesday.

After four militant attacks this year that killed 36 people in Britain – the deadliest spate since the London “7/7” bombings of July 2005, MI5 chief Andrew Parker said the threat was at the highest tempo he had seen in 34 years of espionage.

“The threat is more diverse than I have ever known: plots developed here in the UK, but plots directed from overseas as well, plots online, complex scheming and also crude stabbings, lengthy planning but also spontaneous attacks,” said Parker.

“Attacks can sometimes accelerate from inception, through planning, to action in just a handful of days,” he said in a speech in central London. The director general of MI5 rarely gives public speeches. The last was in 2015.

Daesh militants in Syria and Iraq have been in retreat for two years: They lost their de facto capital in Syria, Raqqa, on Tuesday and have been forced back into an ever-diminishing foothold along the Euphrates river valley.

But as their territory, wealth and swagger decline, the militants have intensified online propaganda which has helped radicalise and inspire extremists to attack civilians across Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Parker said there had not yet been a large influx of British militants returning home from Syria and Iraq.

‘More threat, faster’

Britain has foiled 20 plots in the past four years, with seven attacks prevented in the past seven months, Parker said. He said there were 500 live operations involving 3,000 people involved in militant activity.

MI5, established in 1909 to counter German espionage ahead of World War One, is tasked with protecting British national security and so takes the lead, along with the police, in countering militant attacks.

But after a suicide bomber killed 22 people at a pop concert by US singer Ariana Grande in Manchester, MI5 began a review of how it handled intelligence on the bomber, Salman Abedi, who was known to the intelligence agencies.

Abedi was not among the 3,000 people currently under active investigation by MI5, although he was one of around 20,000 people known to have some connection to extremism.

“When an attack happens, we are determined, using the harsh light of hindsight, to squeeze out every last drop of learning,” Parker said. “We are constantly evolving to stay ahead.”

MI5, which employs around 4,000 people, says it does not have the resources to monitor every suspicious person. It works alongside the Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6, which operates abroad, and GCHQ, Britain’s eavesdropping agency.

‘Not King Canute’

Britain has repeatedly demanded that Silicon Valley companies do more to suppress extremist content and allow access to online communication.

After British militants rammed a van into pedestrians on London Bridge and went on the rampage through packed bars, stabbing revellers in June, Prime Minister Theresa May said Britain must be tougher on stamping out militancy and proposed regulating cyberspace.

Parker said militants’ abuse of the internet could slow down the rapid pace of the hunt for attackers.

“This pace together with the way in which extremists can exploit safe spaces online can make threats harder to detect and give us a smaller window to intervene.”

Britain’s interior minister, Amber Rudd, said earlier this month that WhatsApp’s end-to-end encryption communication services allowed paedophiles and organised crime groups to operate beyond the reach of the law.

But Parker refrained from naming any companies directly and called for a nuanced partnership to tackle militants and serious crimes such as child abuse.

“I am not somehow King Canute trying to hold back the tide of developing technology and wouldn’t wish to be heard that way,” he said. “Technology is not the enemy, indeed it holds many opportunities for us.”

When asked directly whether Google, Facebook and Amazon were doing enough to prevent communications among militants, he said: “There is a reasonable expectation, I think, from all of us but also from the public at large that these companies would do what they can to help us deal with these worst excesses.”

Director General of MI5 Andrew Parker delivers a speech in central London, on the security threat facing Britain October 17, 2017/REUTERS

National Day

ON OCTOBER 18, 2017 BY NARESH SAGARLEAVE A COMMENTEDIT

National Day of the Czech Republic Ambassador H.E. Mr. Milan Hovorka and Mrs. Jarmila Hovorková would like to invite you to a Reception with the musical performance of Bohemia Voice on Friday, October 27, 2017 from 7.30 pm to 9.30 16299481_1487190234653827_1693946378294860594_n

16299481_1487190234653827_1693946378294860594_n

pm.

Please find enclosed the invitation card and bring this invitation with you.

US condemns killing of Malta journalist

ON OCTOBER 18, 2017 BY NARESH SAGARLEAVE A COMMENTEDIT

Daphne Caruana Galizia aged 53 years was killed in a car bomb on Monday soon after leaving her home in Mosta, on the north side of the island. The explosion occurred near the village of Bidnija, sending the car off the road and into a nearby field.

Her son, Matthew Caruana Galizia, said she was “assassinated because she stood between the rule of law and those who sought to violate it, like many strong journalists”. “But she was also targeted because she was the only person doing so,” he said. “This is what happens when the institutions of the state are incapacitated – the last person left standing is often a journalist. Which makes her the first person left dead.”

Mr Caruana Galizia, who was on the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists team that won the Pulitzer Prize for its work on the Panama Papers scandal, wrote a harrowing account of discovering his mother’s burning car and trying to help her.

“I am never going to forget, running around the inferno in the field, trying to figure out a way to open the door, the horn of the car still blaring, screaming at two policemen who turned up with a single, fire extinguisher to use it,” he wrote.

The police officers stared at him and said: “‘I’m sorry, there is nothing we can do’,” he wrote. “I looked down and there were my mother’s body parts all around me. I realised they were right, it was hopeless. ‘Who is in the car?’ they asked me. ‘My mother is in the car. She is dead. She is dead because of your incompetence’.”

The United States on Tuesday condemned the slaying of Maltese journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia and said the FBI had responded to Malta’s request for assistance in investigating the car bomb attack that killed her.

Prime Minister Joseph Muscat said in his public address 90 minutes after the car bomb exploded that he had asked the US for assistance in the investigation.

It is understood that the FBI will – in fact – be leading the investigation and Maltese forensic teams and experts have so far limited themselves to preserving the site of the crime, covering the remains of the car and the human body remains scattered around the site.

Dutch team reached Malta this morning, having been asked for assistance by the Maltese government.

Home Affairs Minister Michael Farrugia took to Twitter early this morning to announce the arrival of the team from the Netherlands.

State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said the United States condemned the “appalling violence that took place against her in the strongest terms,” calling it a “cowardly attack” against a reporter who was dedicated to fighting corruption.

“We responded quickly to the prime minister’s request for assistance. The government of Malta and Malta police force have been in contact with the FBI about the investigation and the FBI is providing specific assistance,” said Nauert, who called for a “thorough, transparent and independent” probe.

Media agencies

Happy Diwali!

ON OCTOBER 18, 2017 BY NARESH SAGARLEAVE A COMMENTEDIT

Season’s Greetings!

On behalf of UNODC South Asia, I wish you and all at home a very Happy Diwali!

May the festive warmth bring to you good luck and health, and fill your life with joy and prosperity.

I look forward to your continued support and interest in UNODC’s work in the region.

With best regards,

Samarth Pathak

___________________________

Samarth PATHAK
Communications Officer
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime,
Regional Office for South Asia
EP 16/17, Chandragupt Marg, Chanakyapuri
New Delhi – 110021, India

Cellphone: +91-9811347927
Tel: +91 11 24104961/64, Ext 86
Email: samarth.pathak@unodc.org

Website: http://www.unodc.org/southasia/

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Gujarat – 69% Engg Seats Vacant, Education Rate 2%

ON OCTOBER 18, 2017 BY NARESH SAGARLEAVE A COMMENTEDIT

Gujarat 8% Students in India – 0.6% Clear AIIMS Test

October18, 2017 (C) Ravinder Singh progressindia2015@gmail.com

It was stunning – when 15 lakh children are born in Gujarat every year – just 3 made it in top 700 for AIIMS Test, about 100 out of 17,140 Candidates. This story was months old.

Gujarat Literacy 80% – Education 2% – 0% Inventing Grade

It was shocking – out of 2.07 lakh professional seats, 1.22 seats are vacant so 85,000 are in colleges and in all not more 30,000 shall pass through with good score – Thus Gujarat Education system Efficiency is barely 2% or 2% education rate.

Not Even One With Inventing Grade.

This is absolutely PATHETIC.

When we tolerate DULLARD grade politicians we get DULLARD GRADE Education.

Supreme Court of India should intervene in this – Prescribe QUALIFICATION LEVELS FOR POLITICIANS – UPSC Like test.

Ravinder Singh, Inventor & Consultant, INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES AND PROJECTS

Y-77, Hauz Khas, ND -110016, India. Ph: 091- 8826415770, 9871056471, 9718280435,

Ravinder Singh* is a WIPO awarded inventor specializing in Power, Transportation,

Smart Cities, Water, Energy Saving, Agriculture, Manufacturing, Technologies and Projects

Napino and Fallbrook partner

ON OCTOBER 18, 2017 BY NARESH SAGARLEAVE A COMMENTEDIT

Napino and Fallbrook partner on advanced transmission solutions for motorcycles and scooters globally

— These transmissions will increase fuel economy, reduce emissions and improve driveability for two- and three-wheelers

CEDAR PARK, TEXAS / GURGAON, INDIA – October 18, 2017 – Fallbrook Technologies Inc. (Fallbrook), the inventor of the NuVinci continuously variable planetary (CVP) transmission technology and Napino Auto & Electronics Ltd. (Napino), one of the world’s leading suppliers of automotive electronic products in its served markets, today announced a global partnership through a licensing and development agreement.

With this partnership, Napino receives a license to develop, manufacture, and sell NuVinci Optimized™ transmissions for use in two- or three-wheel vehicles such as mopeds, scooters, and motorcycles powered by electric motors or internal combustion engines. Fallbrook currently licenses the NuVinci technology in various fields of use to major transportation firms including Allison Transmission, Continental, Dana Incorporated, and TEAM Industries. While the motorcycle and scooter markets can benefit greatly from the implementation of NuVinci technology, Fallbrook had previously held off on licensing the fields of use until it found the right partner with the vision, resources and relationships to facilitate a rapid rollout of the technology in these markets.

“Napino is known for its dedication to supplying high quality parts to its OEM customers as well as identifying, developing, and deploying advanced automotive technology that will enable its customers to gain competitive advantage. NuVinci technology definitely fits that description,” said Vaibhav Raheja, director of Napino. Naveen Kumar, Senior Vice President of Napino added, “NuVinci technology will enable us to provide a value-added drivetrain solution that will improve vehicle efficiency, durability and performance across our licensed fields. Considering the government’s strong push for electrification of vehicles in India, this technology shall also enhance the performance of the electric powertrain.”

“We are delighted to have a new partnership with such a capable and successful company with global reach,” said Sharon A. O’Leary, Fallbrook’s president and chief operating officer. “The agreement with Napino is a natural extension of the other markets for NuVinci Optimized™ transmissions that our licensing community is addressing, including passenger cars and trucks, automotive accessory drives, utility vehicles, eBikes, and bicycles. It demonstrates the broad applicability of NuVinci technology and its rapidly increasing adoption in a variety of industries.”

About Napino Auto & Electronics Ltd.

Based in India, Napino is a leading global supplier of automotive electronic products. With headquarters in Gurgaon, Haryana, India, the company employs roughly 2,500 employees. Its portfolio includes ECUs (electronic control units), capacitor discharge ignition systems, regulator rectifiers, wiring harnesses, handlebar switches and E-Mobility products among other electronic offerings.

As a leader in its segment with complete design, development and manufacturing capabilities, Napino offers innovative solutions to major automobile manufacturers. Through its robust R&D capabilities and sustainable partnerships with global players, Napino’s objective is to lead technology innovation in automotive electronics.

Release of Book,”Black Money and Tax Havens”

ON OCTOBER 18, 2017 BY NARESH SAGARLEAVE A COMMENTEDIT

Invitation for the Release cum discussion on Black Money and Tax Havens authored by Prof R Vaidyanathan by Shri S Gurumurthy (Economic & Political Analyst) on Friday, 3rd November at 1730hrs

Invitation_for_release_cum_discussion_on_Black_Money_and_Tax_Havens

UNMA: Support to Ks of Migrants Affected by Sabratha Conflict

ON OCTOBER 18, 2017 BY NARESH SAGARLEAVE A COMMENTEDIT

Sabratha – In the aftermath of weeks of conflict in the Libyan coastal city of Sabratah, IOM, the UN Migration Agency is providing support to more than 14,000 migrants, previously held in numerous informal detention centres and camps and now transferred to Zuwara and an assembly point in Sabratha.

Since the outbreak of the crisis in recent weeks, 6,700 migrants have received core relief packages, which include mattresses, blankets, pillows and hygiene kits at six separate locations and more than 100,000 meals (including water and juice) have been provided in Zuwara and Sabratha. IOM has also responded to the vast health needs and conducted 1,631 medical interventions and treated 23 injury cases. In addition, 21 women have received pregnancy care including deliveries, while 476 migrants (250 men, 161 women and 65 children) have received psychosocial support.

Out of 1,631 migrants interviewed so far, 44 per cent expressed a wish to return back to their countries of origin through IOM’s Voluntary Humanitarian Return Programme. Acknowledging the need for a quick response, IOM has provided online consular sessions for 332 migrants to speed up the travel document issuance procedures.

Sabratha is approximately 80 kilometres west of Tripoli and is one of the main departure points for migrant boats attempting to make the perilous journey across the Mediterranean Sea to Europe.

On 7 October, a day after the first transfer of migrants, IOM sent a field team to the assembly point in Sabratha to assess the situation. By the end of the day, the team reported that 2,600 migrants (1,819 men, 704 women and 77 children) were being kept at the site by the Libyan Directorate for Combatting Illegal Migration (DCIM).

By 16 October, IOM emergency teams estimated that in total more than 14,000 migrants have been affected, with currently less than 1,000 migrants in Zuwara and around 500 migrants in Sabratha. However, as more migrants are transferred on a regular basis to the two sites, it is too early to confirm whether the wave of migrants is about to stop.

Whilst the conditions at the two sites have been strained with primary needs including drinking water, tents, Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH), medical and psychosocial support, parallel conditions in the detention centres have deteriorated as more migrants continue to arrive.

The migrants are primarily at five detention centres in Tripoli including in Ghariyan (some 90 kilometres south of Tripoli), which is primarily used as a transit point and currently houses 5,000 migrants.

IOM strongly advocates for alternatives to detention. “We are concerned about the large number of migrants transferred to detention,” said Othman Belbeisi, IOM Libya Chief of Mission. “The centres are overcrowded and the conditions do not meet the minimum international human rights standards. We stand ready to provide any necessary support to the Libyan authorities in providing alternatives to detention, especially for the most vulnerable groups, including pregnant women and children.”

The migrants are from almost a dozen countries and among them are pregnant women, newborn babies and unaccompanied children.

For more information, please contact at IOM Libya:

Othman Belbeisi, Tel: +216 29 600 389, Email: obelbeisi@iom.int

Christine Petré, Tel: +216 29 240 448, Email: chpetre@iom.int

Jogesh Sehdeva’s directorial debut Narayan to be a must watch for every Dilliwallah

ON OCTOBER 18, 2017 BY NARESH SAGARLEAVE A COMMENTEDIT

The Delhi filmmaker Jogesh Sehdeva’s “Narayan” is a unique film to have a tagline “Apni Dilli ki film”. This is because the upcoming is totally based on Delhi, highlighting its hidden true facts and is a Delhi centric film with the cast, crew, and locations from the capital itself. The director/ producer/ actor Jogesh Sehdeva was keen on showing a side of the city fewer people are aware of and are scared to talk about. The action drama “Narayan” follows a father’s quest from an overweight middle-class man to a ruthless MMA fighter to get back his son from the clutches of greed & crime.
The film also showcases the unimaginable extent that he goes to for protecting his family. Inspired by the hunger in the belly and the spark in Delhi based artists and technicians, Jogesh decided to make this film with a strong message for all common men and made Delhi its protagonist. No obstacle could led down Jogesh’s determination to be a filmmaker and actor, therefore, despite of numerous challenges and having called back to Delhi from Mumbai due to family problems he continued to work as a theatre artist in Delhi and joined hands with the artists who could not get chance to move to the dream city Mumbai.
Jogesh on questioned about the relevance of the script said, “Narayan is a tale which is not much talked about however prevalent in Delhi and other metros, where family ties are weak and younger generation is inclined towards drugs and intoxicating activities. The film is an amalgamation of the two topics which eventually are interrelated and affects the youth of our generation and I have included some firsthand experiences I have seen around my circle and the set of people I know. I had complete confidence on the script that it holds a critical and commercial content.”

Jogesh also disclosed the reason behind playing the lead himself and said, “Before finalising self in Narayan’s character I auditioned a no. of actors in Delhi but couldn’t find the zeal and commitment the character required as it had to show a transformation journey of fat to fit in the film which required a genuine dedication. I realized I would be a good fit in it and inspired by the characters journey, I decided to give it a shot and prepared myself for the role. Being the director, producer and actor simultaneously became easier as the crew took it really positively and felt like home on the sets.” With a great amount of dedication in a short span of time Jogesh worked hard without the help of chemical or artificial shortcuts because he wanted to keep it real. Strict diet and professional training did the polishing well.

Jogesh then shared the difficulties he faced as an independent filmmaker and said, “When I began I knew it wouldn’t be a cake walk, I figured there will be a lot of hurdles and no. of difficult battles, however, all I had was determination to begin with that motivated me towards my goal. The team I chose to work with were professionals, however, weren’t film level professionals which came as a task too, more than playing Narayan and director/producer for the film I have worked for almost every job on the set from a Spot boy to a light man and so on.”

Jogesh then concluded and said, “We are all very nervous and excited to see how it turns out and what response we will get in this film as everyone from the director to the technical staff has given their time and sweat for this.” So, Dilliwallas lock the date as the film is slated to release on 3rd November 2017.

Happy Diwali! From ThinkTank -ANANTA

ON OCTOBER 18, 2017 BY NARESH SAGARLEAVE A COMMENTEDIT

A N A N T A – The Think Tank:
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