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Market situation
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Projections
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Cereals
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· The grains market situation in the marketing year 2014 was characterised by ample supply.
· Wheat production in 2015 is expected below the 2014 record output, reflecting an expected decline in winter wheat production in Europe .
· Global rice production in 2014 reached 495Mt, well below levels that would have been attained had growth continued at its 10 year trend of 2% p.a. This outcome is largely due to climatic setbacks in Asia .
· For the first time in a decade, global rice utilisation surpassed production, resulting in a drawdown of global rice stocks to 177 Mt.
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· Production of cereals is expected to increase over the next decade. In 2024 production
· will be 14% greater than the base period (2012-14) mainly driven by yield improvements.
· An additional 86 Mt of global wheat supply is projected with a large share being produced in India at 15Mt.
· Coarse grain production is set to increase by 194 Mt with US contributing 51Mt.
· The global increase of 70Mt in rice production is expected to be dominated by Asian countries with contribution of 61 Mt.
· Global cereal consumption is expected to grow by 388Mt reaching 2786Mt by 2024.
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Oilseeds and oilseed products
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· Global oilseeds production in 2014 reached record levels for the second year in a row. Thus, oilseed prices fell considerably and remained under pressure.
· Continuously growing demand for protein meal has been the main driver behind the expansion of oilseed production in recent years.
· Vegetable oil production did not increase commensurate with oilseeds production.
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· From 2015-2024, global oilseeds production is expected to continue its expansion, at a growth rate of 1.6% p.a.
· World vegetable oil production will remain concentrated among a few countries in the coming decade. While, demand growth for vegetable oil is expected to slow down.
· Compared to the past decade, consumption growth of protein meal has slowed down significantly, reflecting both slower growth in global livestock production and a degree of saturation in the inclusion of protein meal in feed rations.
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Sugar
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· With global sugar production expected to exceed global sugar consumption one more time, sugar quotations are anticipated to remain under downward pressure for the remainder of the marketing year.
· The current season is expected to be the last in the surplus phase of the world sugar production cycle.
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· World sugar prices are expected to continue to be volatile and to oscillate during 2015 to 2024 around a moderately upward trend but to decline in real terms.
· Global sugar production is projected to increase by 2.2% p.a. in the coming decade to reach nearly 220Mt by 2024, an increase of around 38 Mt over the base period (2012-14).
· Global consumption of sugar is projected to grow at around 2% p.a., to reach 214Mt in 2024.
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Meat
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Meat prices reached record levels in 2014, driven mainly by an increasing beef price.
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The Outlook for the meat market remains largely positive.
Over the next decade, global meat production will expand at a slower rate, and in 2024 will be 17% higher than the base period (2012-14).
Global annual meat consumption per capita is expected to reach 35.5 kg retail weight equivalent (r.w.e.) by 2024, an increase of 1.6 kg r.w.e. compared to the base period.
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Dairy
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· Chinese milk production declined by 5.7% in 2013 leading to strong import demand for dairy products and to higher world prices.
· Prices of dairy products started declining in the start of 2014. This price decline accelerated in August with China ’s declining demand for whole milk powder and Russia ’s import ban, for among other products, cheeses from the EU, US, Australia and other origins.
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· Real dairy prices are projected to decline slightly in the next decade, albeit remaining considerably above the pre-2007 levels.
· World milk production is projected to increase by 175 Mt (23%) by 2024 when compared to the base years (2012-14), the majority of which (75%) is anticipated to come from developing countries, especially from Asia .
· Per capita consumption of dairy products in developing countries is expected to increase by 1.4% to 2.0% p.a. The expansion in demand reflects continuing albeit more modest income growth and further globalisation of diets.
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Fish
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· The market prospects for fish continue to be positive. The year 2014 was characterized by historical peaks in production, trade and consumption, only slightly affected by events such as the Russian Federation ’s import ban and reduced catches in South America .
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· Fisheries production worldwide is projected to expand by 19% between the 2012-14 and 2024, to reach 191Mt.
· World per capita apparent fish food consumption is projected to reach 21.5kg in live weight (lw) equivalent in 2024, up from 19.7kg in the base period.
· Fuelled by sustained demand, innovations and improvements in processing, preservation, packaging, transport and logistics, total fish, and fishery products will continue to be highly traded.
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Biofuels
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· The decline in prices of cereals, oilseeds and vegetable oil in 2014 in addition to strong decline in crude oil prices in the second half of the year, led to lower world ethanol and biodiesel prices in a context of ample supply for both products.
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· Global ethanol and biodiesel production are both expected to expand to reach, respectively, almost 134.5 and 39 billion litres (Bln L) by 2024.
· Decreases in crude oil and biofuel feedstock prices should lead to a strong decline in ethanol and biodiesel prices at the beginning of the projection period.
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Cotton
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· Global cotton production has decreased and consumption increased over the last few years, but the international market has yet to equilibrate.
· The US and Pakistan increased production in 2014, but falling international prices in the beginning of 2014 resulted in lower production in southern hemisphere countries such as Brazil and Australia .
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· World cotton use is expected to grow at 1.8% p.a., a rate slightly above the long term average of 1.7% during the last 20 years.
· World per capita consumption of cotton increases, but the level in 2024 is nonetheless expected to remain below historical peaks.
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